Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
(2021)
Journal Article
Oidtman, R., Omodei, E., Kraemer, M., Castaneda-Orjuela, C., Cruz-Rivera, E., Misnaza-Castrillon, S., Cifuentes, M., Rincon, L., Canon, V., de Alarcon, P., Espana, G., Huber, J., Hill, S., Barker, C., Johansson, M., Manore, C., Reiner, R., Rodriguez-Barraquer, I., Siraj, A., Frias-Martinez, E., …Perkins, T. (2021). Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease. Nature Communications, 12(1), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25695-0
Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that pe... Read More about Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease.