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Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India

Holt, HR; Walker, M; Beauvais, W; Kaur, P; Bedi, JS; Mangtani, P; Sharma, NS; Gill, JPS; Godfroid, J; McGiven, J; Guitian, J


HR Holt

M Walker

W Beauvais

P Kaur

JS Bedi

P Mangtani

NS Sharma

JPS Gill

J Godfroid

J McGiven

J Guitian


Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of Brucella abortus in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritized. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective or acceptable use of resources because significant numbers of animals would be 'removed' (culled or not used for breeding) based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This work provides key strategic insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general modelling framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.


Holt, H., Walker, M., Beauvais, W., Kaur, P., Bedi, J., Mangtani, P., …Guitian, J. (2023). Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 20(200),

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 17, 2023
Online Publication Date Mar 8, 2023
Publication Date 2023
Deposit Date Feb 6, 2024
Publicly Available Date Feb 6, 2024
Print ISSN 1742-5689
Publisher The Royal Society
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 20
Issue 200
Keywords brucellosis; transmission model; zoonosis; India; dairy cattle; s19 vaccination; RISK-FACTORS; VACCINATION; INFECTION; HEALTH; PROGRAM; PUNJAB


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