Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India

Holt, HR; Walker, M; Beauvais, W; Kaur, P; Bedi, JS; Mangtani, P; Sharma, NS; Gill, JPS; Godfroid, J; McGiven, J; Guitian, J

doi:10.1098/rsif.2022.0756

Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India

Holt, HR; Walker, M; Beauvais, W; Kaur, P; Bedi, JS; Mangtani, P; Sharma, NS; Gill, JPS; Godfroid, J; McGiven, J; Guitian, J

Authors

HR Holt

M Walker

W Beauvais

P Kaur

JS Bedi

P Mangtani

NS Sharma

JPS Gill

J Godfroid

J McGiven

J Guitian

Abstract

Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of Brucella abortus in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritized. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective or acceptable use of resources because significant numbers of animals would be 'removed' (culled or not used for breeding) based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This work provides key strategic insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general modelling framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.

Citation

Holt, H., Walker, M., Beauvais, W., Kaur, P., Bedi, J., Mangtani, P., …Guitian, J. (2023). Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 20(200), https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0756

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	Feb 17, 2023
Online Publication Date	Mar 8, 2023
Publication Date	2023
Deposit Date	Feb 6, 2024
Publicly Available Date	Feb 6, 2024
Print ISSN	1742-5689
Publisher	The Royal Society
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	20
Issue	200
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0756
Keywords	brucellosis; transmission model; zoonosis; India; dairy cattle; s19 vaccination; RISK-FACTORS; VACCINATION; INFECTION; HEALTH; PROGRAM; PUNJAB