Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

COVID-19 Genomics UK COG-UK Consor; Kraemer, MUG; Hill, V; Ruis, C; Dellicour, S; Bajaj, S; McCrone, JT; Baele, G; Parag, KV; Battle, AL; Gutierrez, B; Jackson, B; Colquhoun, R; O'Toole, A; Klein, B; Vespignani, A; Volz, E; Faria, NR; Aanensen, DM; Loman, NJ; du Plessis, L; Cauchemez, S; Rambaut, A; Scarpino, SV; Pybus, OG

Abstract

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.

Citation

COVID-19 Genomics UK COG-UK Consor, Kraemer, M., Hill, V., Ruis, C., Dellicour, S., Bajaj, S., McCrone, J., Baele, G., Parag, K., Battle, A., Gutierrez, B., Jackson, B., Colquhoun, R., O'Toole, A., Klein, B., Vespignani, A., Volz, E., Faria, N., Aanensen, D., Loman, N., …Pybus, O. (2021). Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence. Science, 373(6557), 889-+. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jul 12, 2021
• Publication Date: 2021
• Deposit Date: Jan 12, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 12, 2022
• Print ISSN: 0036-8075
• Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
• Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 373
• Issue: 6557
• Pages: 889-+
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113
• Keywords: METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS; EPIDEMICS; VARIANT; SPREAD; VIRUS; RISK
• Public URL: https://rvc-repository.worktribe.com/output/1555556