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Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

COVID-19 Genomics UK COG-UK Consor; Kraemer, MUG; Hill, V; Ruis, C; Dellicour, S; Bajaj, S; McCrone, JT; Baele, G; Parag, KV; Battle, AL; Gutierrez, B; Jackson, B; Colquhoun, R; O'Toole, A; Klein, B; Vespignani, A; Volz, E; Faria, NR; Aanensen, DM; Loman, NJ; du Plessis, L; Cauchemez, S; Rambaut, A; Scarpino, SV; Pybus, OG

Authors

COVID-19 Genomics UK COG-UK Consor

MUG Kraemer

V Hill

C Ruis

S Dellicour

S Bajaj

JT McCrone

G Baele

KV Parag

AL Battle

B Gutierrez

B Jackson

R Colquhoun

A O'Toole

B Klein

A Vespignani

E Volz

NR Faria

DM Aanensen

NJ Loman

L du Plessis

S Cauchemez

A Rambaut

SV Scarpino

OG Pybus



Abstract

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.

Citation

COVID-19 Genomics UK COG-UK Consor, Kraemer, M., Hill, V., Ruis, C., Dellicour, S., Bajaj, S., …Pybus, O. (2021). Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence. Science, 373(6557), 889-+. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 12, 2021
Publication Date 2021
Deposit Date Jan 12, 2022
Publicly Available Date Jan 12, 2022
Print ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher American Association for the Advancement of Science
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 373
Issue 6557
Pages 889-+
DOI https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113
Keywords METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS; EPIDEMICS; VARIANT; SPREAD; VIRUS; RISK
Public URL https://rvc-repository.worktribe.com/output/1555556

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