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Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics

Rader, B; Scarpino, S V; Nande, A; Hill, A L; Adlam, B; Reiner, R C; Pigott, D M; Gutierrez, B; Zarebski, A E; Shrestha, M; Brownstein, J S; Castro, M C; Dye, C; Tian, H; Pybus, O G; Kraemer, M U G


B Rader

S V Scarpino

A Nande

A L Hill

B Adlam

R C Reiner

D M Pigott

B Gutierrez

A E Zarebski

M Shrestha

J S Brownstein

M C Castro

C Dye

H Tian

O G Pybus

M U G Kraemer


The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread1,2,3,4. During the initial phase of the outbreak, dissemination of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was primarily determined by human mobility from Wuhan, China5,6. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic transmission is lacking7. In this study, we analyzed highly resolved spatial variables in cities, together with case count data, to investigate the role of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 are compressed into a short period of time (peakedness of the epidemic) is strongly shaped by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger total attack rates than less populated cities. Observed differences in the peakedness of epidemics are consistent with a meta-population model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities worldwide could experience more prolonged epidemics.


Rader, B., Scarpino, S. V., Nande, A., Hill, A. L., Adlam, B., Reiner, R. C., …Kraemer, M. U. G. (2020). Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics. Nature Medicine,

Journal Article Type Letter
Acceptance Date Sep 16, 2020
Publication Date Oct 5, 2020
Deposit Date Oct 28, 2020
Publicly Available Date Apr 6, 2021
Journal Nature Medicine
Print ISSN 1078-8956
Publisher Nature Research
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Public URL
Publisher URL


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